2024 Fantasy Football: Offenses to Target in Fantasy Drafts
By: Gavin Babbitt
Fantasy football is correlated with production on the field in the NFL. Drafting players on offenses that move the ball consistently and score points improves the entire baseline of a fantasy lineup. Below is an outline of four NFL teams likely to fit this mold in the upcoming season- it includes an analysis of each team’s top fantasy players and an outlook on the 2024 season.
Detroit Lions
The Lions finished third in total yardage, second in passing yardage, and fifth in scoring among all NFL offenses last season. This unit is well balanced featuring an elite offensive line, premier skill players and a veteran quarterback in Jared Goff.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is the top fantasy asset in Detroit as the team’s number one receiver. In 2023, he finished third among all receivers in fantasy scoring. St. Brown is a high volume receiver who commands most of the targets available for the Lions. He trailed only CeeDee Lamb in total receptions at receiver last season with 141 and finished with a titanic 1,789 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. Fantasy managers can bank on Amon-Ra being the focal point of this Lions passing attack once again in 2024.
Jahmyr Gibbs enters his second NFL season coming off a rookie year in which he finished as the tenth overall running back in fantasy football. Gibbs is a dual-threat back who scored 13 times on the ground last year. He also posted 63 receptions and 410 receiving yards out of the Lions’ backfield. Gibbs is due for an increased workload this season, which gives him a chance to finish as one of the top five fantasy running backs of 2024.
Sam LaPorta burst onto the NFL scene last season leading all tight ends in touchdowns with 11 on the year. This made LaPorta the top scoring tight end in fantasy football regardless of format. Fantasy managers should exercise slightly more caution with Laporta than St. Brown and Gibbs as tight end is the hardest slot to predict in fantasy football. Nonetheless, he certainly is a threat to resurface as a top three fantasy tight end this year.
Jared Goff and the offensive line in Detroit tie all of these players together. Goff was second to only Patrick Mahomes in passing attempts last season and finished with 30 throwing touchdowns. He will have a chance to build on this behind an offensive line that returns four of its five starters including the highest graded offensive lineman in the NFL last season, right tackle Penei Sewell.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers gained the second most total yards in the NFL last year on their way to an NFC Championship. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is brilliant in orchestrating this offense complete with a plethora of high end skill players.
San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey is the most potent fantasy football scorer in recent history. He scored an NFL leading 26 touchdowns last season, 22 of them on the ground and four of them through the air. McCaffrey is slated to be a workhorse once again in the Bay and should be considered the most valuable commodity available in fantasy drafts. In standard scoring leagues, where McCaffrey is not awarded points for his receptions, he still managed to outscore the second ranked fantasy back Raheem Mostert by an absurd 81 points in 2023.
While Brandon Aiyuk’s contract negotiations with the 49ers remain ongoing, fantasy managers should project him returning to the team in 2024 as the most likely outcome. Aiyuk is not a first round receiver in fantasy football, but his route running ability and production last year make him worthy of a fantasy manager’s consideration in the third or fourth round. Aiyuk led the 49ers in targets, receptions, and receiving yardage in 2023. On a team that moves the ball as frequently as San Francisco, Aiyuk’s yardage total should be just fine. If he builds on his touchdown total of seven from a year ago, it could propel him into second round value for fantasy managers.
George Kittle finished as the fifth best tight end in PPR (point per reception) and half PPR formats last season, and was second at his position in standard scoring leagues. This is somewhat misleading when reviewing his targets and receptions from last season. He finished ninth and tenth in those categories at tight end, but led the position in receiving yardage and was tied for second in touchdowns with six. Kittle may be undervalued being drafted near the seventh round as of now, but he could return much more value than that for his managers this season.
Brock Purdy will be in command of this offense for the second straight year after throwing the third most touchdowns in the NFL last season and leading the league in yards per attempt. Purdy will be an efficient addition to a fantasy lineup and should run the “Mr. Irrelevant” discount in fantasy drafts. He can be selected as an inexpensive quarterback that will leave draft capital for managers to bolster their receiver and running back slots.
Miami Dolphins
Mike McDaniel has implemented an air-raid type offense in Miami. The Dolphins led the league in total and passing yardage and were second overall in scoring last season. This an NFL team whose identity is built from the offensive side of the ball.
The crown-jewel for fantasy managers out of south beach is wide receiver Tyreek Hill. He finished third among skill players in fantasy scoring last season trailing only Christian McCaffrey and CeeDee Lamb. Hill’s lethal speed makes him a big play threat on every snap - 657 of his 1,799 receiving yards in 2023 came after the catch. Hill tied Mike Evans for the NFL lead in receiving touchdowns with 13 and was third in total targets with 175. Tyreek’s ability and opportunity are unquestionable ahead of this season and he is worthy of being taken in the top five in any fantasy draft.
Jalen Waddle is the second wide receiver in Miami and can serve as a nice supplement to a fantasy manager’s receiving core. In 15 games last season, Waddle had 1,045 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 109 targets. There is room for growth with Waddle’s fantasy production, but considering the competition he has with Hill for targets he should be taken no earlier than the third round. His value is tied to the throwing volume of this offense.
The backfield in Miami last season was anchored by two players, Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane. Mostert put together the second highest fantasy scoring total of all running backs, finding the end zone 18 times on the ground over 16 games. Mostert’s value is not correlated with this touchdown total ahead of 2024 however, as De’Von Achane played in only12 games and showed more balance and explosiveness. Achane scored eight rushing touchdowns on 7.5 yards per attempt versus 4.8 yards per attempt for Mostert. Achane was also used more than Mostert in the passing game with 31 receptions, 214 yards, and three touchdowns. He is the better choice as the younger back and has top three overall fantasy running back upside.
Tua Tagovailoa is a reliable fantasy quarterback between his accuracy and his passing volume. He was inside the top eight at quarterback last season in completions, completion percentage, passing yardage, and touchdowns. He should not be valued the same as quarterbacks who can score with their legs but his throwing alone will keep him near the top 10 at quarterback in fantasy scoring.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Birds had a tough second half of the 2023 season, but they remain flush with talent on the offensive side of the football.
Jalen Hurts has become one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in the NFL. In the last two seasons, Hurts has scored 28 rushing touchdowns- that would be a respectable total for any NFL running back and it leads all quarterbacks since 2022. Hurts shares a unique ability at quarterback with a handful of other players to accumulate fantasy points on every snap by the way of throwing or rushing. While the “tush-push” may lose some of its flare with the retirement of Jason Kelce, Hurts should remain a top-end fantasy quarterback in the upcoming season.
AJ Brown is the top skill player in Philadelphia and has proven himself to be a top 10 fantasy receiver year in and year out. When Jalen Hurts drops back to throw, it is likely the ball is headed Brown’s direction. His 152 targets last year outpaced his closest teammate, Devonta Smith, by 28 last season. Brown finished seventh in fantasy scoring at receiver last year and is currently being drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts. With a somewhat new offensive line, fantasy managers should use caution in drafting Brown that high, but the minute he falls into the second round he is worth the pick.
The Eagles’ offensive line has been the best in the NFL over the past two seasons but will not have Jason Kelce at Center for the first time since 2011. Despite the notable loss, the other four starters will return. It is unlikely this unit will cost the Eagles the line of scrimmage and they should enable players like Hurts and Brown plenty of time to make plays.
